Obstetrics & GynaecologyDr. Hrishikesh PaiWHO Infertility Guidelines

Director, Fortis Bloom IVF Centre, Fortis Bloom IVF Centre

Part 10 of 13 in Diagnosis and Management of Infertile Couple - Latest Guidelines by WHO

When to Move to IVF: Success Rates, Freezing and Genetic Testing

August 28, 2026

European registry data that Dr. Pai cited put IVF's cumulative outlook in blunt terms: among women under 34 who begin treatment, 89 percent will have a baby within six cycles, and around 70 percent within three. Between 35 and 39, roughly 70 percent succeed by the fourth cycle. Put another way, roughly one in three patients under 35 conceives on any given attempt.

Age is the variable that overrides everything else

Citing the US SART and UK HFEA registries, both of which report outcomes by age band, Dr. Pai gave approximate per-cycle success rates: under 35 around 40 percent, 35 to 37 roughly 35 to 40 percent, 37 to 39 about 25 to 30 percent, 39 to 41 around 15 percent, and above 41 between 5 and 10 percent. The decline tracks a rise in genetically abnormal eggs; embryos still form at older ages, but a larger share of them are chromosomally abnormal, which is also why the miscarriage rate rises even when a pregnancy is achieved.

What changed with freezing

Modern freezing technology means a single stimulated cycle can generate enough eggs and embryos for several attempts. Dr. Pai described his own frozen embryo bank, built up since he began IVF in 1990, as holding close to 150,000 embryos; patients whose first transfer fails, or who want a second child years later, can draw on frozen stock rather than repeating a full stimulation cycle. Where a patient has very few eggs to begin with, an AMH of 0.3 or 0.4 nanograms per ml is not unusual among the patients he sees, he tries platelet-rich plasma injections or stem-cell therapy before recommending donor eggs, though he is candid with patients that these interventions may not restore their own egg supply.

Testing embryos before transfer

For patients with recurrent failure or advanced maternal age, Dr. Pai uses pre-implantation genetic testing: embryos are cultured to the blastocyst stage, a small biopsy is taken, and only genetically normal blastocysts are transferred. Across three IVF attempts using this approach, he estimated that 80 to 90 percent of patients achieve a pregnancy, underscoring his broader point that IVF's biggest downside is simply the possibility of not conceiving, not any specific medical complication of the procedure itself.

This guide is based on a live Jivo Masterclass — Dr. Hrishikesh Pai taught doctors across Africa on February 15, 2026.

FROM THE LIVE Q&A

DR

Dr. Michael Ogbu

Is letrozole considered more effective than clomiphene for ovulation stimulation?

HP

Dr. Hrishikesh Pai

Not universally. Dr. Pai calls clomiphene his master drug and reserves letrozole specifically for PCOS patients. His practice stratifies by AMH and antral follicle count: normal responders (AMH 2 to 3.5 ng/ml, AFC 7 to 15) receive clomiphene or clomiphene plus HMG; poor responders (AMH under 1.5, AFC under 7) also receive clomiphene plus HMG; hyper-responders with PCOS (AMH over 3.5, AFC over 15) receive letrozole; pure HMG is reserved for IVF cycles.

See all 11 questions from this masterclass →

Book a Consultation with Dr. Hrishikesh Pai

Book on WhatsApp

Or message us on WhatsApp: +91 98182 98669

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the referral process for sending a patient's case in for review?

Answered by the Jivo Healthcare coordination team rather than Dr. Pai directly: each referring doctor is assigned a relationship manager who collects and documents the case file, shares it with the Fortis coordinator and Dr. Pai's team, and returns a review with further guidance within 48 to 72 hours.

Can you say more about the injectable medications you mentioned for weight loss and obesity management?

Three drug classes now exist: GLP-1 agonists (semaglutide), GLP-1/GIP combinations (tirzepatide, marketed as Mounjaro), and a GLP-1/GIP/glucagon combination about to be released. Injectable semaglutide starts at 0.25 mg subcutaneously, rising gradually to 2.4 mg; an oral form (Rybelsus) is also available but must be taken daily rather than weekly. Mounjaro, launched in the US two years earlier at roughly $1,000 a month, was released in India at about one-sixth of that cost (roughly Rs 15,000 to 20,000 a month) because of the scale of global obesity; with semaglutide's patent expiring in March and around eleven companies preparing to launch competing versions in India by April, prices are expected to fall further.

There is a lot of misinformation online about Ozempic and similar drugs. What class of drug is this, and how real are the risks?

Ozempic is semaglutide. Untreated obesity itself carries heart, kidney, liver, joint and psychological risks that dwarf the drug's own side effects, which Dr. Pai compared to the rare risk of a plane crash or of liver failure from paracetamol, neither of which stops those products being used. He attributed the outsized scrutiny to how much public attention weight-loss drugs attract, not to an unusual risk profile compared with other common medications such as blood pressure drugs.

Does the drug create dependency, so that someone who loses weight once and regains it later has to keep using it?

These drugs are not used during pregnancy. Dr. Pai's protocol is to bring the patient's weight down, stop the drug, wait about a month for it to wash out, then begin ovarian stimulation, retrieve eggs, freeze embryos, and transfer roughly a month later. He noted that around 50,000 unplanned pregnancies occurred among women on Ozempic in the US with no reported harm, and drew a parallel to metformin, once considered risky in pregnancy and now used throughout it.

For IUI stimulation, what is your combination of medication, and when do you start it?

Clomiphene 50 mg twice daily from day 2 to day 6, plus HMG 150 IU on days 7 and 9. HMG is avoided in PCOS patients because of hyperstimulation risk; PCOS is diagnosed by an antral follicle count above 15 with a necklace pattern on ultrasound and a high AMH, which Dr. Pai called their gold-standard test. He also recommends AMH testing for daughters to check ovarian reserve, with egg freezing considered before age 35 if a woman is not yet married.

What is the cumulative chance of pregnancy for women under 34 across multiple IVF cycles?

European registry data shows that among women under 34 who begin IVF, around 70 percent achieve pregnancy by the end of three cycles, rising to 89 percent by the end of six cycles.

How does a large frozen embryo bank change the need for repeat IVF stimulation?

Modern freezing technology means a single stimulated cycle can produce enough eggs and embryos for several future attempts. A frozen embryo bank built up since 1990 and holding close to 150,000 embryos lets patients whose first transfer fails, or who want a second child years later, draw on frozen stock rather than repeating a full stimulation cycle.

What options exist for patients with very low ovarian reserve who do not want to use donor eggs?

For patients with an AMH as low as 0.3 to 0.4 nanograms per ml who decline donor eggs, platelet-rich plasma injections or stem-cell therapy are tried, while being candid that these interventions may not restore a patient's own egg supply.

What is pre-implantation genetic testing and how does it affect IVF outcomes?

Embryos are cultured to the blastocyst stage, a small biopsy is taken, and only genetically normal blastocysts are transferred. Using this approach across three IVF attempts, 80 to 90 percent of patients achieve a pregnancy, framing IVF's biggest downside as simply the possibility of not conceiving rather than any specific medical complication.

Need Expert Medical Guidance?

Connect with leading specialists through the Jivo Healthcare network for personalized advice.

Get Expert Opinion